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The key Chinese market is only in the early stages of recovery, says the bank.
Regions hit hard by the downturn in international tourism during the pandemic have made a strong recovery.
The positive outlook for the tourism sector comes despite slowing economic growth, acute capacity constraints, low labour force and population growth, as well as widespread cost, price increases, and rising interest rates.
After languishing at the bottom of the bank’s regional rankings, Otago and Southland are on the move.
Popular summer holiday region Tasman has the strongest financial wellbeing in the country, according to ASB.
The West Coast has made a “stunning” return to the top of ASB’s latest measure of regional economic performance.
ASB Bank expects the economy to rebound 8% in Q4 if the elimination of Covid-19 in Auckland is successful.
The bank says Otago is the “perfect illustration of the struggles faced by the tourism-dependent regions”.
Business and consumer confidence has plunged to record lows in April, says ASB in their latest Economic Weekly forecast.
The strengthening global economy, lower NZ dollar and increasing international mobility and connectivity will sustain the current tourism boom, according to bank ASB.
Short-term visitor arrivals were flat in March compared to the same month last year marking the first period since 2014 when a new monthly record was not set.
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